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With the Federal Reserve’s recent increase in the federal funds rate, many banks have followed suit by raising their interest rates. This has caused mortgage interest rates to rise, which discourages borrowing, and also increases interest paid to savers. As a result, certificates of deposit (CDs) are now offering higher yields, making them an attractive option for short-term liquidity needs. While CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment choice, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term benefits of investing in the stock market. While high yield CDs are great for short-term needs, the stock market has historically provided greater yields and potential for long-term growth.
As the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve tries to keep the economy steady using an important rate it can influence: the federal funds rate. This is roughly the cost of borrowing cash overnight between banks. Typically, the Fed lowers its rate to help stimulate the economy and raises it to help curb inflation. Banks generally follow the direction of the Fed funds rate in setting their rates on loans and savings accounts, including newly issued CDs. So a higher Fed rate can result in higher CD rates, but it’s not guaranteed and doesn’t happen instantly.
However, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term implications of their investment decisions and to weigh the benefits and limitations of CDs against other investment options. Remember, banks are not in the business of losing money. When they offer higher yields on CDs, banks can attract the capital they need to then reinvest the proceeds into even higher potentially yielding investments such as the stock market to maintain or increase their own profitability.
Although CDs provide relative safety, real returns may become negative after inflation is factored in. Take a look at the chart below that shows the real returns CDs generated in the six 12-month periods since 1984 that followed peaks in CD rates.
When comparing 12-month returns that followed the six peaks in CD rates since 1984, average returns across four Morningstar bond fund categories outpaced the CD returns in a large majority of the instances…about 83% of the time.
If you were to have invested $250,000 in CDs vs investing the same amount in bond funds during each of those six 12-month periods since 1984, here’s what would have happened. Historically, fixed income has outperformed more than 83% of the time.
In conclusion, while CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment option, they do have limitations that investors should consider. Investors who are seeking long-term growth and flexibility may be better served by investing in other options, such as the stock market.
We’ve looked at how CDs compare to the fixed income market above, so now let’s turn our attention to comparing CDs to the stock market. Here are seven advantages of the stock market compared to CDs: higher yields, potential for long-term growth, diversification opportunities, liquidity, potential for capital appreciation and income and flexibility.
Intelligent Investing believes there are typically three types of risk that every investor should know:
Intelligent Investing is leveraging technology and years of studying investor psychology to help answer these questions. If you want to know your risk number, click the link below for a five-minute questionnaire. If you are married, we highly recommend sitting down with your spouse and taking the questionnaire together. To learn more about our risk process, click here.
One of our unique factors is to leverage technology, and we have leveraged financial technology such as artificial intelligence to help craft the above blog. We have modified the results of the blog to reflect our opinions. Leveraging this technology helps us be more efficient and serve our high-net-worth clients in other ways.
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In conclusion, the stock market offers a range of advantages compared to CDs, especially for investors seeking long-term growth and diversification opportunities. While the stock market does come with some inherent risk, the potential for high returns and the opportunity to diversify and access professional management services make it a compelling option for many investors.
If the “risk-free” rate offered by CDs is decent, it’s worth considering the potential benefits of investing in riskier assets such as the stock market. While CDs may provide a low-risk, low-return investment option, the potential for higher returns from riskier investments such as stocks can be significantly greater over the long term.
Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT. Although we have edited and modified the output to reflect our opinions, it may be protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI. Also, an article by John Hancock Investments: https://www.jhinvestments.com/viewpoints/investing-basics/CDs-or-bonds-Stash-cash-or-look-for-higher-potential-returns
I personally am not a big fan of what is happening with banks and the recent Silicon Valley Bank headlines.
First of all, I don’t believe anyone should “manipulate” markets, especially governments. When they do….there are always unintended consequences. Let’s take a brief stroll down memory lane.
When COVID-19 hit, the government rushed in “shut down the economy.” Remember, “Only two weeks to flatten the curve”? Then two weeks became three, then four, and so on. Well, you can’t keep a country going when no one is working. So, the government decided to “stabilize” the economy and give big PPP loans to businesses and large tax credits to taxpayers.
All of this “free money” was given at a time when most of us were not able to travel and didn’t know what to do with it. Therefore, there was a building up of demand, with no supply.
This led to people staying home and play “day trader” at home by investing their excess cash into “high quality stocks” (tongue in cheek) meme stocks like Robinhood and driving up GameStop stock to hurt institutional investors.
This also led to people depositing excess cash back into the banking system…what else were they going to do with it?
As money flowed into banks during the pandemic, the bank’s deposits rose. The banks then have options on what to do with the fresh deposits? One of their options is to buy short-term Treasurys or other “safe” assets or keep the money in cash. Instead, this bank opted to buy riskier assets likely due to greed or an unprofessional lack of knowledge on how interest rates and risk management work.
But first, let’s review how bonds work…
Bond Education 101:
When interest rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice-versa), with long-maturity bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration than short-term bonds that are closer to maturity and have fewer coupon payments remaining.
So, instead of buying shorter duration bonds and money market types of investments, which would have partially insulated Silicon Valley Bank and others from the risk of rising interest rates. They instead opted to buy longer-term U.S. Treasurys and government-backed mortgage securities.
The Federal Reserve
Now, let’s turn our attention briefly to the Fed.
The Fed has two primary mandates: maximum employment and stable prices.
Because of inflation getting out of control, the Fed has stepped in and has raised interest rates, which is one major tool to lower inflation. The idea is that by raising the cost of borrowing money it deters people from investing or buying things and curbs the demand for goods and services.
So, back to SVB…they took the deposits (many of which were from COVID government handouts) and invested the deposits into risky assets that get hurt more when interest rates rise. As a result, their portfolio of risky assets has gotten hammered by all the interest rate hikes.
So, when the people come back to the bank for their deposits because times are tough and inflation continues to skyrocket, the bank has to sell their portfolio at a loss. If more and more people come to the bank looking to take back their deposits…..as a bank, you have a real problem, and could have a bank run, as we saw.
The governments have been stepping back in to calm down investors. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has stepped in to provide the insurance coverage for depositors. I think this is a good thing and the whole point of having the insurance in the first place.
However, what I don’t like seeing is the governments stepping in to bail out the banks themselves who were practicing foolishly. Remember earlier, I am not a big fan of government intervention. There are always unintended consequences. In my opinion, if an investment is bad, it needs to fail, and those who invested in it should experience the volatility. perhaps then more due diligence will be done before investing.
Investing can be risky, and sometimes businesses will fail. Others will succeed. By governments bailing out the investors of these banks, it sends a wrong signal to those who are trying to do right. Now the government is calling for more regulation for regional banks…banks who may be getting punished because of some “bad apples.”
You can’t have your cake (upside return) and eat it too (no downside—the government will bail you out).
In times of uncertainty, it is essential to stay focused on your long-term investment goals. It is important to remember that volatility is often the price we must pay for long-term results. We believe that the current situation is no exception, and history has shown that markets have always recovered from unexpected events. Bank collapses, unexpected events, and market downturns have all happened before, and they will likely happen again. While these short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, it is essential to remember that investing is a long-term game, and the stock market has consistently delivered positive returns for patient investors who remained invested through the ups and downs.
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Do you have questions about SECURE 2.0 Act that passed in the final hours last year? You are not alone. I’ve been reading a lot about it and I too even have some questions for lawmakers.
As we wrapped up 2022, President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 Act into law on December 29th.[1] The new act is being called SECURE 2.0 based on the name of its thematic predecessor, the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (“SECURE Act”). This legislation makes notable changes to qualified retirement plans. These will increase the age for RMDs, make enrollment and escalation automatic for most new 401(k)s and 403(b)s, and increase tax credits for low-income retirement savers, among other changes. Here’s a summary of some notable changes that occurred.
This summary scratches the surface on what all is in the SECURE 2.0 Act. Taxpayers (and especially those approaching retirement) are all but guaranteed to continue to have an endless stream of questions with respect to this complicated area.
Ask yourself: Do I have a trusted advisor who specializes in tax planning? Does my financial advisor have the right credentials (such as being a qualified CPA?) Is my advisor a true fiduciary? (i.e., do they put your interest AHEAD of their own at ALL times?)
Why don’t you make a new year’s resolution to get your “financial junk drawer” in order this year. We would love to help. We love serving our high-net-worth clients by minimizing financial stress and maximize their lives using our proprietary Intelligrations™.
You can start by subscribing to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts or by subscribing to our Intelligent Insights blogs. Or if you are finally ready to get some professional help, please let us know.
If you want to collaborate or outsource this to qualified fiduciary professionals, please click here to reach out for a complimentary call or coffee.
Reference: Michael Kitces’ Perspective on the Secure Act 2.0
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we interviewed Matt Hougan, Chairman of Inside ETFs, on his journey in the ETF and FinTech industry. As Matt Hougan states, his passion is identifying and developing technology that elevates the finance industry. Matt used this passion to build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system. During this episode, Matt shares the backstory of his financial career and how he landed in the ETF and FinTech industries.
As a reminder, the views and opinions expressed on the Intelligent Money Minute podcast are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views of Intelligent Investing, LLC. Intelligent Investing does not imply any endorsement or approval of any of the investments mentioned on the podcast. This podcast is to educate the public, and the investment strategy and themes discussed may not be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation.
Our boutique firm serves high-net-worth individuals and families. We would be honored to sit down with you to discuss your investment objectives and financial situation.
We are excited to be interviewing Matt Hougan, and we have several more episodes where we explore the ins and outs of ETFs, bitcoin, and blockchain, so be sure to subscribe to our podcasts to hear all the interviews.
Matt Hougan is one of the world’s leading experts on crypto, ETFs, and financial technology. He is the Global Head of Research for Bitwise Asset Management, creator of the world’s first cryptocurrency index fund. Hougan is also Chairman of Inside ETFs, the world’s largest ETF conference. He was previously CEO of ETF.com, where he helped build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system. Hougan is co-author of the CFA Institute’s Monograph on ETFs. He’s also a crypto columnist for Forbes and a three-time member of the Barron’s ETF Roundtable. For more resources from Matt Hougan click here.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we interviewed Matt Hougan, Chairman of Inside ETFs on the crypto’s impact on the war in Ukraine. During the war in Ukraine, Ukraine President Zelenskyy called upon other nations to donate via cryptocurrency in an effort to combat Russia. As Matt Hougan states, war is chaotic derailing standard infrastructure while crypto remained intact. Matt highlights the potential positives of an established cryptocurrency as a means of anti-fragility in the midst of uncertainty.
As a reminder, the views and opinions expressed on the Intelligent Money Minute podcast are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views of Intelligent Investing, LLC. Intelligent Investing does not imply any endorsement or approval of any of the investments mentioned on the podcast. This podcast is to educate the public, and the investment strategy and themes discussed may not be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation.
Our boutique firm serves high-net-worth individuals and families. We would be honored to sit down with you to discuss your investment objectives and financial situation.
We are excited to be interviewing Matt Hougan, and we have several more episodes where we explore the ins and outs of ETFs, bitcoin, and blockchain, so be sure to subscribe to our podcasts to hear all the interviews.
Matt Hougan is one of the world’s leading experts on crypto, ETFs, and financial technology. He is the Global Head of Research for Bitwise Asset Management, creator of the world’s first cryptocurrency index fund. Hougan is also Chairman of Inside ETFs, the world’s largest ETF conference. He was previously CEO of ETF.com, where he helped build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system. Hougan is co-author of the CFA Institute’s Monograph on ETFs. He’s also a crypto columnist for Forbes and a three-time member of the Barron’s ETF Roundtable. For more resources from Matt Hougan click here.