Investing/ Markets

Why Did Traditional Diversification Fail in 2022?

May 11, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Traditional diversification failed in 2022, but why did it happen, and will it happen again? On this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, Hans Blake interviews Larry Swedroe, the head of economic and financial research at Buckingham Wealth Partners, who also co-authored 18 books. According to Swedroe, traditional diversification, which was within the 60/40 stock and bond allocation, failed in 2022. Both stocks and safe treasuries had double-digit losses, which is the first time this has happened, making it almost the worst year for a 60/40 portfolio. Moreover, longer-term treasuries lost over 20%, and the S&P was down by about 18%. Correlation between these two risk assets has been negative for the last 20 years. However, if you look at the last hundred years, the correlation was positive at about 0.2. Therefore, traditional diversification failed because correlations between stocks and safe bonds are time-varying.

Swedroe emphasizes that investors shouldn’t treat correlations as a permanent number, as they are time-varying. He explains that correlations do not mean that when one asset goes up, the other goes down. It means that when one has a better-than-average return, the other one has a worse-than-average return. During the last 20 years, we had a negative correlation between stocks and safe bonds, so investors thought that when stocks got crushed, bonds would tend to do better than their average. However, that didn’t happen in 2022, making investors rely solely on safe bonds and equity bonds, which could be risky.

Swedroe recommends that investors consider including other non-traditional assets that will do well in such periods. For instance, reinsurance, private floating debt, long-short equity, private real estate, and other alternatives can help dampen the risk in an investor’s portfolio. He mentioned that last year, all of the alternatives he owned were up, which helped diversify his portfolio. He advises investors to consider adding other unique sources of risk to their portfolio and not rely solely on safe bonds and equity bonds. Lastly, he says that investors must have a diversified portfolio to help mitigate these unusual time periods when correlations of traditional assets rise.

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We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

In his role as chief research officer and as a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee and Board of Directors, Larry regularly reviews the findings published in dozens of peer-reviewed financial journals, evaluates the outcomes and uses the result to inform the firm’s formal investment strategy recommendations.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television shows airing on NBC, CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Personal Finance. Larry is a prolific writer, contributing regularly to multiple outlets, including Advisor Perspectives and ETF.com.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT, may or may not reflect the knowledge and opinions of Intelligent Investing, and is protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI.

Don’t Be Fooled By High Yield CDs: Why the Bond and Stock Market May be the Better Option

March 30, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Reading Time: 6 minutes

With the Federal Reserve’s recent increase in the federal funds rate, many banks have followed suit by raising their interest rates. This has caused mortgage interest rates to rise, which discourages borrowing, and also increases interest paid to savers. As a result, certificates of deposit (CDs) are now offering higher yields, making them an attractive option for short-term liquidity needs. While CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment choice, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term benefits of investing in the stock market. While high yield CDs are great for short-term needs, the stock market has historically provided greater yields and potential for long-term growth.

Why The Recent Yield Increases for CDs

As the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve tries to keep the economy steady using an important rate it can influence: the federal funds rate. This is roughly the cost of borrowing cash overnight between banks. Typically, the Fed lowers its rate to help stimulate the economy and raises it to help curb inflation. Banks generally follow the direction of the Fed funds rate in setting their rates on loans and savings accounts, including newly issued CDs. So a higher Fed rate can result in higher CD rates, but it’s not guaranteed and doesn’t happen instantly.

However, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term implications of their investment decisions and to weigh the benefits and limitations of CDs against other investment options. Remember, banks are not in the business of losing money. When they offer higher yields on CDs, banks can attract the capital they need to then reinvest the proceeds into even higher potentially yielding investments such as the stock market to maintain or increase their own profitability.

Limitations of CDs

There are three primary limitations on CDs: limited returns, lack of flexibility, and inflation risk.

Limited returns: CDs typically offer limited returns compared to other investment options, such as the stock market. While the guaranteed return on a CD may seem attractive in the short-term, it may not provide enough growth to keep pace with inflation over the long-term. This means that the purchasing power of the returns on a CD may decrease over time, making it a less attractive option for those seeking long-term growth. Investors should be and have been rewarded over time for the cost of “stock market volatility.” This higher level of risk is reflected in the equity risk premium, which is the excess return that investors expect from holding equities over a risk-free asset such as government bonds.
Lack of flexibility: CDs are typically inflexible investments, with a set maturity date and interest rate. This means that if interest rates rise after the CD has been invested in, the investor is locked into the lower rate until the CD matures. Additionally, early withdrawal from a CD typically incurs penalties, which can further reduce the returns on the investment.
Inflation risk: Inflation is a key factor that can impact the returns on a CD. As the cost of goods and services rises over time, the purchasing power of a fixed return on a CD may decrease. This means that the returns on a CD may not keep pace with inflation, which can erode the value of the investment over time. Investors should consider this risk when deciding whether to invest in a CD and should consider the potential impact of inflation on their investment goals.

Although CDs provide relative safety, real returns may become negative after inflation is factored in. Take a look at the chart below that shows the real returns CDs generated in the six 12-month periods since 1984 that followed peaks in CD rates.

When comparing 12-month returns that followed the six peaks in CD rates since 1984, average returns across four Morningstar bond fund categories outpaced the CD returns in a large majority of the instances…about 83% of the time.

If you were to have invested $250,000 in CDs vs investing the same amount in bond funds during each of those six 12-month periods since 1984, here’s what would have happened. Historically, fixed income has outperformed more than 83% of the time.

In conclusion, while CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment option, they do have limitations that investors should consider. Investors who are seeking long-term growth and flexibility may be better served by investing in other options, such as the stock market.

Advantages of the Stock Market

We’ve looked at how CDs compare to the fixed income market above, so now let’s turn our attention to comparing CDs to the stock market. Here are seven advantages of the stock market compared to CDs: higher yields, potential for long-term growth, diversification opportunities, liquidity, potential for capital appreciation and income and flexibility.

Historically higher yields: The stock market has traditionally provided higher returns compared to CDs. Over the long-term, stocks have delivered average returns of around 10% per year, while CDs typically have offered returns of 2-3%. This means that investing in the stock market has the potential to provide significantly higher returns over the long-term, especially when compared to CDs. It’s important to note that stock market returns are not guaranteed and can be subject to significant volatility in the short term, while CD yields are fixed and provide a more stable return.
Potential for long-term growth: The stock market is a highly dynamic investment option that can provide long-term growth. As companies grow and expand, their stock prices can also increase, providing investors with the potential for substantial returns. Additionally, reinvesting dividends can compound returns over time, further increasing the potential for long-term growth.
Diversification opportunities: Investing in the stock market provides investors with the opportunity to diversify their portfolios across multiple companies, industries, and even countries. This diversification helps to reduce risk, as the performance of any one stock is not likely to impact the entire portfolio. By spreading investments across a range of stocks, investors can potentially reduce the impact of any one investment on their overall portfolio.
Liquidity: The stock market is a highly liquid investment option, with stocks that can be bought and sold quickly and easily. This means that investors can access their money when they need it, without having to wait for a CD to mature. Additionally, the stock market is open for trading five days a week, providing investors with the opportunity to buy and sell stocks at their convenience. Keep in mind, the stock market’s liquidity, or the ability to sell stocks quickly and easily, does not guarantee that an investor will be able to maintain the original capital invested. Volatility in the stock market can cause significant fluctuations in stock prices, which can impact an investor’s ability to sell stocks and maintain their original capital. In times of market volatility, stocks may become less liquid, as there may be fewer buyers or a decreased demand for certain stocks. This can result in a reduction in the price of the stock, which can impact an investor’s ability to sell and maintain their original capital.
Potential for capital appreciation: One of the biggest advantages of the stock market is the potential for capital appreciation. As companies grow and expand, their stock prices can increase, providing investors with the potential for substantial returns. This potential for capital appreciation is not typically available with CDs, which offer fixed returns that are based on the interest rate.
Opportunity for income: The stock market provides investors with the opportunity to earn income through dividends. Dividends are payments made by companies to their shareholders, and investing in stocks that pay dividends can provide a reliable source of income. CDs offer fixed returns that may not be enough to keep pace with inflation over time.
Flexibility: The stock market provides investors with the flexibility to invest in a range of stocks and investment vehicles. This flexibility allows investors to tailor their investments to their specific investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. CDs are typically less flexible, as they offer a fixed return that is based on the interest rate.

How Intelligent Investing Integrates Risk

Intelligent Investing believes there are typically three types of risk that every investor should know:

My ability to take on risk (assets/income/goals)
My willingness to take on risk (can I sleep at night with this much risk)
My actual risk (what kind of risk do I actually have in my overall portfolio)

Intelligent Investing is leveraging technology and years of studying investor psychology to help answer these questions. If you want to know your risk number, click the link below for a five-minute questionnaire. If you are married, we highly recommend sitting down with your spouse and taking the questionnaire together. To learn more about our risk process, click here.

How Intelligent Investing Leverages Financial Technology

One of our unique factors is to leverage technology, and we have leveraged financial technology such as artificial intelligence to help craft the above blog. We have modified the results of the blog to reflect our opinions. Leveraging this technology helps us be more efficient and serve our high-net-worth clients in other ways.

If you would like to learn more about our proprietary Intelligrations™, we’d love to have a complimentary call or coffee with you. Click here to get started.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the stock market offers a range of advantages compared to CDs, especially for investors seeking long-term growth and diversification opportunities. While the stock market does come with some inherent risk, the potential for high returns and the opportunity to diversify and access professional management services make it a compelling option for many investors.

If the “risk-free” rate offered by CDs is decent, it’s worth considering the potential benefits of investing in riskier assets such as the stock market. While CDs may provide a low-risk, low-return investment option, the potential for higher returns from riskier investments such as stocks can be significantly greater over the long term.

Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT. Although we have edited and modified the output to reflect our opinions, it may be protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI. Also, an article by John Hancock Investments: https://www.jhinvestments.com/viewpoints/investing-basics/CDs-or-bonds-Stash-cash-or-look-for-higher-potential-returns

Lessons We can Learn from SVB’s Failure

March 29, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

I personally am not a big fan of what is happening with banks and the recent Silicon Valley Bank headlines.

First of all, I don’t believe anyone should “manipulate” markets, especially governments. When they do….there are always unintended consequences. Let’s take a brief stroll down memory lane.

When COVID-19 hit, the government rushed in “shut down the economy.” Remember, “Only two weeks to flatten the curve”? Then two weeks became three, then four, and so on. Well, you can’t keep a country going when no one is working. So, the government decided to “stabilize” the economy and give big PPP loans to businesses and large tax credits to taxpayers.

All of this “free money” was given at a time when most of us were not able to travel and didn’t know what to do with it. Therefore, there was a building up of demand, with no supply.

This led to people staying home and play “day trader” at home by investing their excess cash into “high quality stocks” (tongue in cheek) meme stocks like Robinhood and driving up GameStop stock to hurt institutional investors.

This also led to people depositing excess cash back into the banking system…what else were they going to do with it?

As money flowed into banks during the pandemic, the bank’s deposits rose. The banks then have options on what to do with the fresh deposits? One of their options is to buy short-term Treasurys or other “safe” assets or keep the money in cash. Instead, this bank opted to buy riskier assets likely due to greed or an unprofessional lack of knowledge on how interest rates and risk management work.

But first, let’s review how bonds work…

Bond Education 101:

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice-versa), with long-maturity bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration than short-term bonds that are closer to maturity and have fewer coupon payments remaining.

So, instead of buying shorter duration bonds and money market types of investments, which would have partially insulated Silicon Valley Bank and others from the risk of rising interest rates. They instead opted to buy longer-term U.S. Treasurys and government-backed mortgage securities.

The Federal Reserve

Now, let’s turn our attention briefly to the Fed.

The Fed has two primary mandates: maximum employment and stable prices.

Because of inflation getting out of control, the Fed has stepped in and has raised interest rates, which is one major tool to lower inflation. The idea is that by raising the cost of borrowing money it deters people from investing or buying things and curbs the demand for goods and services.

So, back to SVB…they took the deposits (many of which were from COVID government handouts) and invested the deposits into risky assets that get hurt more when interest rates rise. As a result, their portfolio of risky assets has gotten hammered by all the interest rate hikes.

So, when the people come back to the bank for their deposits because times are tough and inflation continues to skyrocket, the bank has to sell their portfolio at a loss. If more and more people come to the bank looking to take back their deposits…..as a bank, you have a real problem, and could have a bank run, as we saw.

A couple of key takeaways:

The governments have been stepping back in to calm down investors. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has stepped in to provide the insurance coverage for depositors. I think this is a good thing and the whole point of having the insurance in the first place.

However, what I don’t like seeing is the governments stepping in to bail out the banks themselves who were practicing foolishly. Remember earlier, I am not a big fan of government intervention. There are always unintended consequences. In my opinion, if an investment is bad, it needs to fail, and those who invested in it should experience the volatility. perhaps then more due diligence will be done before investing.

Investing can be risky, and sometimes businesses will fail. Others will succeed. By governments bailing out the investors of these banks, it sends a wrong signal to those who are trying to do right. Now the government is calling for more regulation for regional banks…banks who may be getting punished because of some “bad apples.”

You can’t have your cake (upside return) and eat it too (no downside—the government will bail you out).

What should an intelligent investor do?

In times of uncertainty, it is essential to stay focused on your long-term investment goals. It is important to remember that volatility is often the price we must pay for long-term results. We believe that the current situation is no exception, and history has shown that markets have always recovered from unexpected events. Bank collapses, unexpected events, and market downturns have all happened before, and they will likely happen again. While these short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, it is essential to remember that investing is a long-term game, and the stock market has consistently delivered positive returns for patient investors who remained invested through the ups and downs.

8 Key Takeaways from the SECURE 2.0 Act

January 19, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Do you have questions about SECURE 2.0 Act that passed in the final hours last year? You are not alone. I’ve been reading a lot about it and I too even have some questions for lawmakers.

As we wrapped up 2022, President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 Act into law on December 29th.[1] The new act is being called SECURE 2.0 based on the name of its thematic predecessor, the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (“SECURE Act”). This legislation makes notable changes to qualified retirement plans. These will increase the age for RMDs, make enrollment and escalation automatic for most new 401(k)s and 403(b)s, and increase tax credits for low-income retirement savers, among other changes. Here’s a summary of some notable changes that occurred.

The age for RMDs goes up to 73 for those who turn 72 in 2023 and 75 in 2033. This is great news for those who don’t need the funds from qualified accounts. We help our clients with Roth conversions, and this allows more years to do this.
Most of the new 401(k)s and 403(b)s will be required to enroll employees automatically and escalate contributions automatically after December 31, 2024. This is what we preach about–improving investor behavior. Check out our behavioral finance page to learn more.
RMDs are eliminated from Roth accounts in 401(k)s and 403(b)s for tax years after December 31, 2023. As a result of SECURE Act 2.0, plan Roth accounts and Roth IRAs will be on more of a level playing field. It won’t be quite so obvious to determine whether or not rolling over a plan Roth account to a Roth IRA is in your best interest going forward. (We can help you with the decision)
Catch-up contribution limits will go up for those age 60 and 63 after December 31, 2024 to the greater of two: either $10,000 or 150% of the regular catch-up amount for those 50 and older. (Keep in mind that high wage earners will be required to use Roth option for catch-up contributions.)
The bill decreases the penalty for missed RMDs (or distributing too little) from 50% to 25% of the shortfall, and if the mistake is corrected in a timely manner, the penalty is reduced to 10%. (If you are a client of Intelligent Investing–we handle this automatically for you.)
There are some great (and complicated) planning options around Roth accounts inside and outside your employer plans. The Act authorizes the creation of both SIMPLE Roth accounts, as well as SEP Roth IRAs, for 2023 and beyond. Previously, SIMPLE and SEP plans could only include pre-tax funds. We help business owners setup Simple IRAs and manage their wealth in a cohesive way. (Side note: do you know it typically makes sense to put your “efficient” assets in a Roth IRA and your “less-efficient” assets in qualified accounts. It’s called tax location and something we love doing for our clients to reduce their tax bills)
Transfers from 529 plans to Roth IRAs (max amount in individual’s lifetime is $35,000) may be an area for high-net-worth families to consider. Great planning opportunity for high-net-worth families who have been funding their 529 Plans for a long time.
Those who are charitably inclined can give from qualified accounts directly to charities via Qualified Charitable Contributions (QCDs) and they can still be taken at 70.5 before reaching the new RMD ages. (We currently do this for some clients and can help you with this)

This summary scratches the surface on what all is in the SECURE 2.0 Act. Taxpayers (and especially those approaching retirement) are all but guaranteed to continue to have an endless stream of questions with respect to this complicated area.

Ask yourself: Do I have a trusted advisor who specializes in tax planning? Does my financial advisor have the right credentials (such as being a qualified CPA?) Is my advisor a true fiduciary? (i.e., do they put your interest AHEAD of their own at ALL times?)

Why don’t you make a new year’s resolution to get your “financial junk drawer” in order this year. We would love to help. We love serving our high-net-worth clients by minimizing financial stress and maximize their lives using our proprietary Intelligrations™.

You can start by subscribing to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts or by subscribing to our Intelligent Insights blogs. Or if you are finally ready to get some professional help, please let us know.

If you want to collaborate or outsource this to qualified fiduciary professionals, please click here to reach out for a complimentary call or coffee.

Reference: Michael Kitces’ Perspective on the Secure Act 2.0

Matt Hougan’s ETF & FinTech Journey

December 22, 2022 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we interviewed Matt Hougan, Chairman of Inside ETFs, on his journey in the ETF and FinTech industry. As Matt Hougan states, his passion is identifying and developing technology that elevates the finance industry. Matt used this passion to build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system. During this episode, Matt shares the backstory of his financial career and how he landed in the ETF and FinTech industries.

As a reminder, the views and opinions expressed on the Intelligent Money Minute podcast are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views of Intelligent Investing, LLC. Intelligent Investing does not imply any endorsement or approval of any of the investments mentioned on the podcast. This podcast is to educate the public, and the investment strategy and themes discussed may not be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial situation.

Our boutique firm serves high-net-worth individuals and families. We would be honored to sit down with you to discuss your investment objectives and financial situation.

We are excited to be interviewing Matt Hougan, and we have several more episodes where we explore the ins and outs of ETFs, bitcoin, and blockchain, so be sure to subscribe to our podcasts to hear all the interviews.

Matt Hougan Bio

Matt Hougan is one of the world’s leading experts on crypto, ETFs, and financial technology. He is the Global Head of Research for Bitwise Asset Management, creator of the world’s first cryptocurrency index fund. Hougan is also Chairman of Inside ETFs, the world’s largest ETF conference. He was previously CEO of ETF.com, where he helped build the world’s first ETF data and analytics system. Hougan is co-author of the CFA Institute’s Monograph on ETFs. He’s also a crypto columnist for Forbes and a three-time member of the Barron’s ETF Roundtable. For more resources from Matt Hougan click here.

How Inflation May Affect Your Retirement Distributions

November 10, 2022 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we continue our conversation with Morningstar’s director of personal finance, Christine Benz on how inflation may affect your retirement distributions. One of the major questions that retirees face is how much to distribute from their portfolio in retirement. Retirees also want to know which buckets to distribute from first, and what happens if they withdraw too much during a downturn. During this episode, Christine Benz walks us through the impact inflation has on retirement planning and distributions.

At Intelligent investing, we love answering these types of questions. We perform various stress tests, we strive to use conservative assumptions, and we try to educate to improve investor behavior—all with the underlying passion of minimizing financial stress to maximize lives.

You may be unsatisfied with your current financial advisor or perhaps you’ve never worked with one before. You may find yourself with a lot of financial stress and would like a second opinion on your financial situation or portfolio. Don’t stress any longer than you need to when it comes to your financial picture.

Intelligent investing is a boutique wealth management firm serving high net worth individuals and families using Intelligrations™ and behavioral coaching. Consider requesting a complimentary no-obligation call or coffee with us.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Christine on several podcasts regarding retirement strategies, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Christine Benz Bio

Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and author of 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances and the Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: 5-Star Strategies for Success. She holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and Russian/East European studies from the University of Illinois. Christine lives in the Chicago suburbs with her husband, Greg. She is an avid cook, a political junkie, and a long-suffering Chicago Cubs fan. Follow Christine on Twitter.

Crypto’s Impact on the War in Ukraine

October 27, 2022 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we interviewed Matt Hougan, Chairman of Inside ETFs on the crypto’s impact on the war in Ukraine. During the war in Ukraine, Ukraine President Zelenskyy called upon other nations to donate via cryptocurrency in an effort to combat Russia. As Matt Hougan states, war is chaotic derailing standard infrastructure while crypto remained intact. Matt highlights the potential positives of an established cryptocurrency as a means of anti-fragility in the midst of uncertainty.

Our boutique firm serves high-net-worth individuals and families. We would be honored to sit down with you to discuss your investment objectives and financial situation.

Matt Hougan Bio

Don’t Assume You’re Getting an Inheritance

September 29, 2022 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: < 1 minute

On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we continue our conversation with Morningstar’s director of personal finance, Christine Benz on don’t assume you’re getting an inheritance. Financial communication is critical, especially between generations. Many children in our country are making a dangerous assumption; that a lucrative inheritance is headed their way. Yet many come to the reading of will only to be devasted that the inheritance they’re expecting doesn’t exist. During this episode, Christine Benz stresses the importance of talking about finances with family members before it’s too late.

At Intelligent Investing, we focus on helping facilitate and communicate on difficult financial topics between family members. If you find it difficult to communicate with the next generation regarding your estate or your wealth, please consider reaching out for a complimentary no-obligation call or coffee to discuss your financial situation. We’d love to be considered your financial accountability partner.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Christine on several podcasts regarding retirement strategies, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.