retirement

What An Intelligent Investor Should Do with Market Outlooks

November 30, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

The Reality of Market Forecasts

Larry firmly grounds his perspective in empirical evidence, highlighting that market forecasts hold no genuine value. The research indicates that predicting the future is beyond the prowess of even the most esteemed experts. Warren Buffett, revered for his investing prowess, hasn’t entertained macro forecasts for over 25 years, emphasizing their futility in guiding long-term plans. An intriguing paradox emerges when investors revere individuals like Buffett or Peter Lynch yet often disregard their advice. Larry notes the danger of succumbing to predictions by market gurus like Jeremy Grantham, whose forecasts have often faltered, leading investors astray. The empirical evidence reaffirms that forecasting market trends accurately remains elusive.

The Ark Investment Phenomenon

Kathy Wood’s approach at Ark Investments soared on a narrative of disruptive technologies, akin to the late 90s tech boom. However, as Larry points out, this strategy historically led to significant volatility and long-term underperformance. Wood’s fund initially gained traction, attracting billions of dollars during its successful periods, only to face substantial challenges when those speculative trends faltered. The pattern echoes a cycle familiar in investing: rising investor interest leads to inflows, magnifying the fund’s exposure and driving up the prices of thinly traded stocks. This reinforcement ultimately feeds back into the momentum, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, when these high expectations are not substantiated by earnings, the bubble bursts, leaving investors vulnerable.

Prudent Advice for Investors: Tune Out Market Forecasts

Larry’s analysis emphasizes that while Kathy Wood’s strategies occasionally yield short-term successes, they often culminate in long-term disappointments. This rollercoaster ride in performance, influenced by speculative investments in disruptive technologies, serves as a cautionary tale for investors. Larry Swedroe’s wisdom is clear: investors should tune out market forecasts and strategists and adhere to well-crafted investment plans. Instead of chasing returns or following the latest headlines, the focus should remain on executing well-thought-out plans. He cautions against hasty reactions driven by market noise. For those seeking a financial advisor or aiming to reevaluate their investment strategies, we extend an invitation to connect with us. Our goal is to help you minimize financial stress and maximize your life’s potential through informed, tailored financial decisions. Schedule a short discovery call or meeting We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing. In his role as chief research officer and as a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee and Board of Directors, Larry regularly reviews the findings published in dozens of peer-reviewed financial journals, evaluates the outcomes and uses the result to inform the firm’s formal investment strategy recommendations. Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television shows airing on NBC, CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Personal Finance. Larry is a prolific writer, contributing regularly to multiple outlets, including Advisor Perspectives and ETF.com. Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp. Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College. Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT, may or may not reflect the knowledge and opinions of Intelligent Investing, and is protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI.

What An Intelligent Investor Should Do When an Asset Class Falls Out of Favor

November 16, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on what an intelligent investor should do when an asset class falls out of favor.

All Risk Investments: Enduring the Ebb and Flow

Larry emphasizes a fundamental truth: every risk investment, whether it’s stocks, bonds, commodities, or others, experiences prolonged periods of underperformance. Investors often underestimate these cycles, mistakenly assuming that three, five, or even ten years are lengthy evaluation periods. However, historical evidence proves otherwise, with instances where the S&P 500 trailed behind treasury bills for 13-year durations occurring three times since 1929. The crux of Larry’s advice centers on diversification across various unique risks, aligning with one’s risk tolerance. This strategy, substantiated in his book, “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing,” promotes the inclusion of assets proven to offer premiums over time. Diversifying globally and including varied sources of risk—be it stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies—reduces dependency on any single investment, mitigating the impact when a particular asset class is out of favor.

Intelligent Investing: A Holistic Approach

Larry Swedroe’s wisdom underscores the importance of persistence and diversification in an investor’s journey. When faced with an asset class in decline, staying committed to a diversified strategy tailored to individual risk tolerances is key. We invite you to engage with us in exploring your unique risk profile and leveraging our financial technology to fortify your investment journey. For those seeking a financial advisor or aiming to reevaluate their investment strategies, we extend an invitation to connect with us. Our goal is to help you minimize financial stress and maximize your life’s potential through informed, tailored financial decisions. Schedule a short discovery call or meeting We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

The Rapid Rise of Artificial Intelligence

October 19, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

AI’s Ever-Changing Landscape

Larry Siegel began by highlighting the dynamic nature of AI technology. It’s a field that’s progressing at a breathtaking pace, making it challenging to keep a steady viewpoint. The implications of AI’s continuous evolution extend far beyond what we can currently anticipate.

An anecdote from Tyler Cowen’s blog, “Marginal Revolution,” left Siegel impressed. The story was written by an AI program and exuded creative writing with a flair for evoking emotions. This starkly contrasted previous AI outputs, which Siegel found unimpressive and likened to amateurish essays.

The Future of Financial Advice and AI

Despite the breathtaking progress in AI, Siegel remains cautious. While acknowledging AI’s ability to process vast data sets at remarkable speed, he is skeptical about whether it can truly mimic human intelligence. The debate rages on about the extent to which AI can replicate the intricacies of the human brain.

The interview delved into the question of AI’s role in financial advice. Could AI replace human advisors, particularly for intellectual tasks? Siegel’s cautious approach to AI’s evolution is timely given its potential impact on various professional fields, including finance.

At Intelligent Investing, we continuously explore the intersection of technology and human intelligence. As AI develops, it’s essential to strike a balance, recognizing the strengths of both humans and machines. The future will likely demand a collaborative approach to maximize the potential of both.

Larry Siegel Bio

Laurence B. Siegel is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation and an author, consultant, and speaker on investment management and economics. Before retiring from full-time work in 2009 he was director of research at the Ford Foundation and, before that, head of research at Ibbotson Associates (since acquired by Morningstar). He attended the University of Chicago (BA 1975, MBA 1977). His book, Fewer, Richer, Greener, has been published by Wiley and is available, along with his other work, at https://www.larrysiegel.org.

Is Bitcoin a Good Inflation Hedge

October 12, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Blockchain Technology’s Potential

Larry Swedroe commenced the discussion by emphasizing the potential of blockchain technology, the foundation on which cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are built. The blockchain is already revolutionizing the financial sector by facilitating faster and more efficient payment transfers and record-keeping. While the blockchain shows promise, Swedroe took a more skeptical view of Bitcoin. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s value proposition is questionable. Bitcoin has a theoretical limited supply, capped at 21 million coins. However, the existence of an unlimited number of substitute cryptocurrencies means Bitcoin faces a daunting challenge. An asset with an unlimited supply typically sees its value approach zero. Swedroe categorized Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, though he acknowledged that it could achieve high trading values based on what people are willing to pay.

Bitcoin: A Poor Inflation Hedge

Swedroe was humble in his skepticism, admitting he might be wrong. He would never recommend shorting Bitcoin. Nevertheless, he found comfort in the agreement of financial economists like John Cochran and Nobel laureate Gene Fama, who shared his view on Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. Addressing a common belief that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge, Swedroe made it clear that Bitcoin’s performance does not support this notion. Its value is highly volatile and can plummet significantly during times of rising inflation.

Speculation ≠ Intelligent Investing

Swedroe’s insight serves as a reminder that speculation does not equate to intelligent investing. While some may choose to speculate on Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, such endeavors come with substantial risks and should be approached with caution. At Intelligent Investing, we prioritize serving high-net-worth clients. Through our proprietary financial technology, Intelligrations®, we help our clients minimize financial stress and maximize their quality of life. If you’re seeking a new financial advisor or haven’t had one before, we’re here to discuss your financial goals and risk tolerance. We aim to provide sound financial advice and services tailored to your unique circumstances. Schedule a short discovery call or meeting We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

The Benefits Of Working Beyond the Typical Retirement Age

September 7, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

The Financial Advantage

First and foremost, extending your career offers a significant financial advantage. Most jobs pay better than the retirement benefits that follow. By working longer, you can bolster your income, reducing the need to draw from your retirement savings. This, in turn, allows your nest egg to last longer.

For instance, if you retire at 70 instead of 62, you have eight fewer years of retirement to finance with your savings. This can translate to a more comfortable retirement lifestyle. Additionally, working longer provides you with an opportunity to save more, further strengthening your financial position.

Mental Stimulation and Social Interaction

Beyond financial considerations, working beyond the traditional retirement age offers vital mental stimulation and social interaction. Engaging in meaningful work can keep your mind sharp and active. It prevents the feeling of life becoming a waiting game, as Larry aptly puts it.

The human need for intellectual engagement and social connection remains a driving force. Continuing to work allows you to maintain a sense of purpose, contribute to society, and interact with colleagues, fostering personal growth and well-being.

Personal Fulfillment

Larry Siegel stresses how remaining intellectually active and engaged can be personally fulfilling. By continuing to write books, give talks, and interact with colleagues and clients, he not only sustains his mental acuity but also enjoys the sense of purpose and fulfillment that comes with it.

At Intelligent Investing, we understand that the transition into retirement can be challenging. Husbands and wives often have differing goals and concerns. Our mission is to unify families through effective financial communication, helping couples make a successful transition into retirement.

Explore our retirement resources on our website to gain valuable insights into this transformative phase of life. We are passionate about minimizing financial stress and maximizing the quality of life for our clients.

Larry Siegel Bio

Is Gold a Good Inflation Hedge?

August 10, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of whether gold is truly a good inflation hedge.

Evaluating Gold’s Track Record

Gold and Bitcoin have often been promoted as potential shields against inflation. However, to make an informed decision, we turn to empirical evidence. Let’s explore whether history validates gold’s reputation as a reliable inflation hedge. When scrutinizing gold’s performance in the face of inflation, we find surprising results. Take, for instance, the period from 2020 to 2022, a time marked by significant inflation. Curiously, gold ended this phase down by about 4%, while inflation surged by approximately 14%. In essence, gold’s value slipped by 18% in real terms, negating its purported role as an inflation hedge. An even more striking example stretches over two decades, from 1980 to 2002, a period characterized by high inflation. During these 22 years, gold lost over 85% of its real value. These historical data points prompt a reevaluation of gold’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge.

Alternative Perspective

Interestingly, gold’s claim to being an inflation hedge stands on firmer ground when we extend our horizon to a century or more. Across this extended span, an ounce of gold has maintained its purchasing power, reflecting its role as a long-term inflation hedge. However, this century-long hedge comes at the cost of a lack of real returns. As Intelligent Investing, we believe in providing our high-net-worth clients with well-informed financial guidance. Gold’s questionable track record as a short-term inflation hedge underscores the importance of considering other strategies to preserve wealth and manage risks. Schedule a short discovery call or meeting We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Why People Stop Working Even When It Is Healthy For Them

July 20, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 2 minutes

In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Siegel, the director of the CFA Institute Research Foundation and a prolific investment management author. The discussion revolved around why people stop working even when it may benefit them to continue working. In this blog, Larry Siegel sheds light on the reasons behind early retirement and the potential benefits of working beyond traditional retirement years.

The History of Traditional Retirement Age

Larry Siegel explains that the age at which most people stop working, typically between 62 and 67, can be traced back to the 1880s when Chancellor Otto von Bismarck in Germany established the National Pension Scheme. This age has persisted through the establishment of Social Security in the US by President Franklin Roosevelt in 1935 and the subsequent eras of defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans. Tradition and inertia have played a significant role in preserving this retirement age. Additionally, physical limitations and a desire for easier work, which often coincide with age, have also influenced the decision to retire.

The research indicates that for physically demanding jobs, retirement in the mid-sixties may be appropriate. However, for those in less physically demanding roles, retirement at this age might be premature. The concept of retirement has evolved, and now many of us are engaged in think work, which does not necessarily require physical stamina. For such individuals, retirement at this age may be too early, as their skills and productivity could still be valuable to the workforce.

Lack of Flexibility in Retirement Decisions

Despite the potential benefits of continued work, many employees face challenges in transitioning to easier roles or negotiating part-time work arrangements. Rigidity in employment laws and established customs often limit the options for workers who wish to continue working beyond the traditional retirement age. The result is that many employees are forced to retire when they could still contribute meaningfully to the workforce.

The decision to retire should be individualized, considering the unique circumstances of each person and their specific employment situation. At Intelligent Investing, we believe in customizing financial strategies to suit our clients’ goals and preferences. We leverage our proprietary Intelligrations® to help our clients run various scenarios, such as unexpected health crises or part-time work arrangements, to achieve optimal financial outcomes. Our passion is to minimize financial stress and maximize the quality of life for our high-net-worth clients.

Larry Siegel Bio

How Intelligent Investors Should Respond to Volatility

July 13, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

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Reading Time: 3 minutes In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of how intelligent investors should respond to volatility. As a CFA and CPA, I understand the importance of navigating market volatility and its impact on investment strategies. In this blog, I will summarize the insightful discussion with Larry, providing key takeaways on the causes of volatility and how intelligent investors can respond to market uncertainties.

Causes of Volatility

Larry Swedroe begins by explaining that volatility is primarily caused by unexpected events. Since these events are unforecastable, investors should expect and prepare for periods of high volatility. Intelligent investors should incorporate this certainty into their investment plans and avoid taking more risks than necessary. Swedroe suggests assessing one’s ability, willingness, and need to take risks, ensuring that the investment portfolio aligns with these factors. He also highlights recent trends that have contributed to increased volatility, such as the shift from active to passive strategies like indexing. The rise of passive investing has led to lower turnover and reduced liquidity, resulting in greater volatility in pricing. Additionally, changes in trading rules and the Volcker Rule have further limited liquidity in the markets, amplifying volatility.

Intelligent Investor’s Response to Volatility

In response to market volatility, intelligent investors should adopt a well-structured investment plan. Swedroe emphasizes the need for a diversified portfolio and advises against taking excessive risks. He recommends keeping equity exposure within a range of 25-30% for those with enough wealth. Building a portfolio with more diversified assets can help mitigate risk without sacrificing returns. Additionally, Swedroe emphasizes the importance of sticking to the plan and not succumbing to panic-driven selling. By setting realistic expectations and aligning risk tolerance with portfolio composition, intelligent investors can navigate market volatility more effectively.

The Price of Admission

Volatility is often referred to as the price of admission for higher expected returns. Intelligent investors understand that market fluctuations are an inherent part of investing and should be prepared to weather these storms. By accepting the uncertainty and having a well-defined investment plan, investors can focus on long-term goals and avoid making impulsive decisions driven by short-term market fluctuations. Swedroe and I agree that risk should be carefully evaluated based on an investor’s financial situation, willingness to take risks, and specific investment goals. Volatility is an unavoidable aspect of investing, but intelligent investors can respond effectively by incorporating it into their investment plans. By understanding the causes of volatility, such as unexpected events and shifts in market dynamics, investors can adjust their strategies accordingly. Building diversified portfolios, aligning risk tolerance with portfolio composition, and maintaining a long-term perspective are key elements of intelligent investing in the face of market volatility. Remember, a well-structured investment plan and disciplined approach can help you weather market uncertainties and maximize your investment potential. Schedule a short discovery call or meeting We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts. Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.