Inflation

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on signs of risk and business cycles. During this episode, Ed talks about risk regimes that are out in the market and how they lead to different business cycles. We can’t know truly know when risk regimes are shifting, but we can keep an eye on converging risks. For the first time in a long time, we are seeing a rise in both real inflation risk and business cycle risk. 

Risk comes in cycles and follows the business cycle. We can look for signs that different seasons are coming as Ed mentioned. Looking at credit rate risks, interest rate risks, etc… you can see risks rising and falling. It is never crystal clear, and not foolproof due to the fact there are exogenous shocks that can change the outlook overnight. At Intelligent Investing, we don’t want to be naïve, but we have faith in our future. We regard optimism as the only realism. There will always be something to fear, but we think that progress continues to increase. Think back to your childhood and all the technology that has changed since then. We want to maintain a positive outlook on life, even when things appear dark or grim. To learn more about our wealth management principles and philosophy, please visit our philosophy page.

Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed. We’d be happy to sit down with you over coffee or a call to share our process and philosophy and how we manage risk for our high-net-worth clients. 

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on how to hedge against stagflation. In previous episodes, Ed stresses how correctly diagnosing the inflationary environment is critical to approaching an accurate economic solution. During this inflation series, Ed Peters defined reflation, deflation, and stagflation. Stagflation is defined as persistently high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. Outside of shorting, Ed explains the challenges a stagflation environment poses for any investor. 

As Ed mentioned, the Fed has found itself in a tricky spot. A prudent investor will not want to guess and hope for the best regarding the Fed’s next move. On our next episode with Ed, we’ll talk about various risk regimes and what we should be aware of. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed. We’d be happy to sit down with you over coffee or a call to share our process and philosophy and how we manage risk for our high-net-worth clients. 

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.