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How to Hedge Against Stagflation?

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How to Hedge Against Stagflation with Ed Peters

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on how to hedge against stagflation. In previous episodes, Ed stresses how correctly diagnosing the inflationary environment is critical to approaching an accurate economic solution. During this inflation series, Ed Peters defined reflation, deflation, and stagflation. Stagflation is defined as persistently high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. Outside of shorting, Ed explains the challenges a stagflation environment poses for any investor. 

As Ed mentioned, the Fed has found itself in a tricky spot. A prudent investor will not want to guess and hope for the best regarding the Fed’s next move. On our next episode with Ed, we’ll talk about various risk regimes and what we should be aware of. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed. We’d be happy to sit down with you over coffee or a call to share our process and philosophy and how we manage risk for our high-net-worth clients. 

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

Reflation, Deflation, & Stagflation? OH MY!

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Reflation, Deflation, & Stagflation? OH MY!

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on reflation, deflation, and stagflation. You’ll read in the headlines about the different types of inflation including stagflation, deflation, and reflation. During this episode, Ed Peters breaks down each type and what scenario they occur. Correctly diagnosing the inflationary environment is critical to approaching an accurate economic solution. 

As Ed mentioned, there are a number of financial terms out there that are very confusing. We shared just a few of them today. At Intelligent Investing, our passion is to minimize financial stress to maximize lives. We try to help our high net worth clients sort through the headlines and news, to help them keep their focus on their long-term goals. As their financial accountability partner, we help alleviate the stress that often comes from either a lack of knowledge or our innate emotional desire to want to react. We’d be happy to sit down with you over coffee or a call to share our process and philosophy and how we manage risk for our high-net-worth clients. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

Inflation Risks & Hedging Techniques We Need To Consider

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Inflation Risks & Hedging Techniques We Need To Consider

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on inflation risks & hedging techniques we need to consider. In general, we don’t typically know what causes the current inflation. Trying to hedge a specific type of inflation is difficult to do, and you’d need a crystal ball to do it successfully. The main thing to do is have a basket of hedging techniques in response to inflation risks. During this episode, Ed Peters explains in-depth the value of various hedging techniques in response to inflation risks. 

There are a number of inflation techniques to consider, but a lot of the hedging depends on the reasons for the inflation in the first place. Gold can sometimes help with monetary caused inflation, and inflation-linked bonds can also help, as well as REITs and infrastructure. It can get complicated really quickly, but you do need a basket of diversified investments to help you smooth out the risks along your investment journey. We’d be happy to sit down with you over coffee or a call to share our process and philosophy and how we manage risk for our high-net-worth clients. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

Is Our Current Inflationary Environment Transitory?

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Is Our Current Inflationary Environment Transitory? with Ed Peters

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on whether our current economic environment is transitory inflation. Many economists believe the current inflation in our country is transitory. The common misconception according to Ed Peters is the misdiagnosis of the current inflationary environment. During this episode, Ed explains that there’s a good chance that we never get back to the pre-covid inflation number. In summary, Ed believes a monetary inflation environment may occur as a result of the current inflationary environment. 

We’ll talk to Ed more about his thoughts on whether a monetary inflation environment may occur down the road and ways to consider hedging against such an environment. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

The Fed is on Slippery Ice

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The Fed is on Slippery Ice with Ed Peters

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on how the Fed is on slippery ice. During this episode, Ed explains the Fed’s reasoning behind potentially raising interest rates due to the recent inflationary climate. The Fed wants to raise interest rates in a way that doesn’t hurt the economy with the hope that supply chain issues resolve themselves. 

As Ed mentioned, the Fed would have to take a very hawkish stance to raise rates above inflation (like Volker did in the late 70s). That probably isn’t on their agenda, but they do want to take their foot off the gas, but not necessarily hit the brakes. 

On our next podcast with Ed, we’ll talk about whether this is a transitory inflationary environment, a permanent inflationary environment, or some combination. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

What Are The Inflationary Indicators & What Can They Tell Us?

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What Are The Inflationary Indicators & What Can They Tell Us with Ed Peters

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On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on whether what are the inflationary indicators? During this episode, Ed breaks down the different types of inflationary indicators and how they each impact the economy. As Ed mentioned money velocity, is the amount of currency that is spent compared to how much money is out there. While the money supply has grown, GDP has increased faster, causing the money velocity to collapse and is currently flat.

While there is more money going into the economy, Americans are not spending, but rather saving their money. This can indicate that the current inflationary environment is caused by something other than money supply. Perhaps supply shocks due to supply chain issues. Perhaps demand shocks which are the pent-up demand for goods and services from Americans.

On the next episode with Ed Peters, we’ll talk about the difficulty the Fed has found itself in, and what are some of the potential outcomes as they navigate this difficult environment. Be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

Is This Inflation A Repeat of the Hyperinflation of the 70s?

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Is This Inflation A Repeat of the Hyperinflation of the 70s?

Reading Time: 2 minutes

On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on whether this inflation is a repeat of the hyperinflation of the 70s? During this episode, Ed walks us through the history of inflation starting in the 1970s. He believes that the current inflation the U.S. is experiencing will not last long. He notes that the current inflation is more a perfect storm than a monetary issue.

The late 70s hyperinflation period was in part caused by the OPEC supply-side shock of 1973. There are reasons why the current inflationary period may be transitory. As Ed mentioned, there is a perfect storm of both a demand and supply shock that is similar to coming out of World War II. 

As a result, we think intelligent investors shouldn’t overreact to our current inflationary environment, but be prudent in understanding the reasons why we may be having inflation, and by understanding the cause or causes, we may be able to set proper expectations for the future.

Many people believe that the current inflation we are experiencing is due to all the stimulus checks and programs the government has put out over the past few years. While this increase in money supply can cause inflation, there are indicators that are telling a different story. We’ll be talking more about this and why the velocity of money (or how fast are Americans spending money) in future Intelligent Money Minute podcasts, so be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

The History and Three Causes of Inflation

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The History and Three Causes of Inflation with Ed Peters

Reading Time: 2 minutes

On today’s Intelligent Money Minute, we’ll interview Ed Peters on the history and three causes of inflation. During this episode, Ed walks us through the history of inflation starting in the 1970s. He explains the types of inflation and what causes them. He stresses the importance of accurately diagnosing inflation in order to appropriately address it. 

It is important to get an idea of the history of inflation to get an understanding of the current inflationary environment. Inflation can be caused by a number of reasons—primarily money supply, supply shocks, or demands shocks. 

Since we haven’t dealt with inflation for about 40 years, there are a lot of myths surrounding inflation and our current environment. It is vital that you are able to properly diagnose inflation to understand the cause of inflation. We’ll be talking with Ed about Inflation in a number of upcoming podcasts where he will share what he thinks may be the cause of inflation and ways you can deal with it, so as an Intelligent Investor be sure to subscribe to our podcasts so you can stay informed.

Ed Peters Bio

Ed Peters is First Quadrant’s Managing Partner. In this role, Ed establishes the firm’s strategic direction, develops firm-wide initiatives, and chairs the Executive Leadership Team and the Management Operating Committee. Ed also contributes to First Quadrant’s research efforts, with a particular emphasis on market states, and manages the firm’s long-only multi-asset strategy. Prior to joining First Quadrant in 2008, Ed worked at PanAgora Asset Management, at various times serving as equity portfolio manager, Director of Tactical Asset Allocation, CIO of Macro Investments, and CIO. Other past work experience includes Interactive Data Corporation and Mutual Benefit Life. Ed holds an MBA from Rutgers University. He has published articles in multiple investment journals, as well as three books.

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