Investing/ Markets

What An Intelligent Investor Should Do When an Asset Class Falls Out of Favor

November 16, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Reading Time: 2 minutes

In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on what an intelligent investor should do when an asset class falls out of favor.

All Risk Investments: Enduring the Ebb and Flow

Larry emphasizes a fundamental truth: every risk investment, whether it’s stocks, bonds, commodities, or others, experiences prolonged periods of underperformance. Investors often underestimate these cycles, mistakenly assuming that three, five, or even ten years are lengthy evaluation periods. However, historical evidence proves otherwise, with instances where the S&P 500 trailed behind treasury bills for 13-year durations occurring three times since 1929.

The crux of Larry’s advice centers on diversification across various unique risks, aligning with one’s risk tolerance. This strategy, substantiated in his book, “Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing,” promotes the inclusion of assets proven to offer premiums over time. Diversifying globally and including varied sources of risk—be it stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies—reduces dependency on any single investment, mitigating the impact when a particular asset class is out of favor.

Intelligent Investing: A Holistic Approach

Larry Swedroe’s wisdom underscores the importance of persistence and diversification in an investor’s journey. When faced with an asset class in decline, staying committed to a diversified strategy tailored to individual risk tolerances is key. We invite you to engage with us in exploring your unique risk profile and leveraging our financial technology to fortify your investment journey.

For those seeking a financial advisor or aiming to reevaluate their investment strategies, we extend an invitation to connect with us. Our goal is to help you minimize financial stress and maximize your life’s potential through informed, tailored financial decisions.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has since authored seven more books.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

In his role as chief research officer and as a member of the firm’s Investment Policy Committee and Board of Directors, Larry regularly reviews the findings published in dozens of peer-reviewed financial journals, evaluates the outcomes and uses the result to inform the firm’s formal investment strategy recommendations.

Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television shows airing on NBC, CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Personal Finance. Larry is a prolific writer, contributing regularly to multiple outlets, including Advisor Perspectives and ETF.com.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT, may or may not reflect the knowledge and opinions of Intelligent Investing, and is protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI.

Is Bitcoin a Good Inflation Hedge

October 12, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Blockchain Technology’s Potential

Larry Swedroe commenced the discussion by emphasizing the potential of blockchain technology, the foundation on which cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are built. The blockchain is already revolutionizing the financial sector by facilitating faster and more efficient payment transfers and record-keeping.

While the blockchain shows promise, Swedroe took a more skeptical view of Bitcoin. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s value proposition is questionable. Bitcoin has a theoretical limited supply, capped at 21 million coins. However, the existence of an unlimited number of substitute cryptocurrencies means Bitcoin faces a daunting challenge. An asset with an unlimited supply typically sees its value approach zero. Swedroe categorized Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, though he acknowledged that it could achieve high trading values based on what people are willing to pay.

Bitcoin: A Poor Inflation Hedge

Swedroe was humble in his skepticism, admitting he might be wrong. He would never recommend shorting Bitcoin. Nevertheless, he found comfort in the agreement of financial economists like John Cochran and Nobel laureate Gene Fama, who shared his view on Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

Addressing a common belief that Bitcoin is an inflation hedge, Swedroe made it clear that Bitcoin’s performance does not support this notion. Its value is highly volatile and can plummet significantly during times of rising inflation.

Speculation ≠ Intelligent Investing

Swedroe’s insight serves as a reminder that speculation does not equate to intelligent investing. While some may choose to speculate on Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, such endeavors come with substantial risks and should be approached with caution.

At Intelligent Investing, we prioritize serving high-net-worth clients. Through our proprietary financial technology, Intelligrations®, we help our clients minimize financial stress and maximize their quality of life. If you’re seeking a new financial advisor or haven’t had one before, we’re here to discuss your financial goals and risk tolerance. We aim to provide sound financial advice and services tailored to your unique circumstances.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

Is Gold a Good Inflation Hedge?

August 10, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Evaluating Gold’s Track Record

Gold and Bitcoin have often been promoted as potential shields against inflation. However, to make an informed decision, we turn to empirical evidence. Let’s explore whether history validates gold’s reputation as a reliable inflation hedge.

When scrutinizing gold’s performance in the face of inflation, we find surprising results. Take, for instance, the period from 2020 to 2022, a time marked by significant inflation. Curiously, gold ended this phase down by about 4%, while inflation surged by approximately 14%. In essence, gold’s value slipped by 18% in real terms, negating its purported role as an inflation hedge.

An even more striking example stretches over two decades, from 1980 to 2002, a period characterized by high inflation. During these 22 years, gold lost over 85% of its real value. These historical data points prompt a reevaluation of gold’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge.

Alternative Perspective

Interestingly, gold’s claim to being an inflation hedge stands on firmer ground when we extend our horizon to a century or more. Across this extended span, an ounce of gold has maintained its purchasing power, reflecting its role as a long-term inflation hedge. However, this century-long hedge comes at the cost of a lack of real returns.

As Intelligent Investing, we believe in providing our high-net-worth clients with well-informed financial guidance. Gold’s questionable track record as a short-term inflation hedge underscores the importance of considering other strategies to preserve wealth and manage risks.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

How Intelligent Investors Should Respond to Volatility

July 13, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Reading Time: 3 minutes

In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of how intelligent investors should respond to volatility. As a CFA and CPA, I understand the importance of navigating market volatility and its impact on investment strategies. In this blog, I will summarize the insightful discussion with Larry, providing key takeaways on the causes of volatility and how intelligent investors can respond to market uncertainties.

Causes of Volatility

Larry Swedroe begins by explaining that volatility is primarily caused by unexpected events. Since these events are unforecastable, investors should expect and prepare for periods of high volatility. Intelligent investors should incorporate this certainty into their investment plans and avoid taking more risks than necessary. Swedroe suggests assessing one’s ability, willingness, and need to take risks, ensuring that the investment portfolio aligns with these factors. He also highlights recent trends that have contributed to increased volatility, such as the shift from active to passive strategies like indexing. The rise of passive investing has led to lower turnover and reduced liquidity, resulting in greater volatility in pricing. Additionally, changes in trading rules and the Volcker Rule have further limited liquidity in the markets, amplifying volatility.

Intelligent Investor’s Response to Volatility

In response to market volatility, intelligent investors should adopt a well-structured investment plan. Swedroe emphasizes the need for a diversified portfolio and advises against taking excessive risks. He recommends keeping equity exposure within a range of 25-30% for those with enough wealth. Building a portfolio with more diversified assets can help mitigate risk without sacrificing returns. Additionally, Swedroe emphasizes the importance of sticking to the plan and not succumbing to panic-driven selling. By setting realistic expectations and aligning risk tolerance with portfolio composition, intelligent investors can navigate market volatility more effectively.

The Price of Admission

Volatility is often referred to as the price of admission for higher expected returns. Intelligent investors understand that market fluctuations are an inherent part of investing and should be prepared to weather these storms. By accepting the uncertainty and having a well-defined investment plan, investors can focus on long-term goals and avoid making impulsive decisions driven by short-term market fluctuations. Swedroe and I agree that risk should be carefully evaluated based on an investor’s financial situation, willingness to take risks, and specific investment goals.

Volatility is an unavoidable aspect of investing, but intelligent investors can respond effectively by incorporating it into their investment plans. By understanding the causes of volatility, such as unexpected events and shifts in market dynamics, investors can adjust their strategies accordingly. Building diversified portfolios, aligning risk tolerance with portfolio composition, and maintaining a long-term perspective are key elements of intelligent investing in the face of market volatility. Remember, a well-structured investment plan and disciplined approach can help you weather market uncertainties and maximize your investment potential.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

The Pitfalls of Recency Bias

May 18, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Reading Time: 3 minutes

In a recent episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, the head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth. Our discussion centered around the dangers of recency bias, a common emotional tendency among investors. Larry emphasized the importance of understanding historical context and avoiding the trap of projecting recent events onto the future. In this blog post, we’ll share some key takeaways from our conversation and explore strategies to overcome recency bias in investment decision-making.

Recognizing Recency Bias

Recency bias refers to the tendency of investors to give excessive weight to recent market events when making investment decisions. We have a natural inclination to believe that what has just occurred will continue in the short term. This bias often leads us to ignore historical data and overlook the importance of long-term correlations. Larry stressed the need to become students of history and cautioned against relying solely on recent trends to guide our investment choices.

Larry highlighted that recency bias is one of the most detrimental mistakes investors can make. While there is evidence of short-term momentum, where recent winners tend to continue performing well for a limited period, it’s crucial to remember that trees don’t grow to the sky. Valuations can reach unsustainable levels, driven by investor enthusiasm. Larry cited examples like the dot-com era and the recent market bubble, where unprofitable companies achieved sky-high valuations based on recent success. However, high valuations eventually come back to haunt investors. To avoid this pitfall, he emphasized the importance of sticking to your investment plan and not being swayed by recency bias.

Strategies to Mitigate Recency Bias

To counteract the influence of recency bias, we discussed several strategies during the interview. One effective approach is disciplined portfolio rebalancing. By selling some of the high-priced winners and buying assets that have performed poorly but offer higher expected returns, investors can maintain a balanced portfolio and avoid chasing recent winners. Additionally, we explored the role of trend following, specifically managed futures, as an investment class that captures short-term momentum swings. However, it’s crucial not to allocate all your assets to trend following, as it can underperform for extended periods. Larry recommended considering a 5% to 10% allocation to mitigate tail risk during prolonged bear markets.

Recency bias can be difficult to overcome alone, especially during times of market volatility. That’s why having a financial accountability partner is vital. This partner can help design a financial plan and keep you grounded when fear and greed tempt you to deviate from your investment strategy. At our firm, we provide clients with proprietary interrogations that guide their decision-making and minimize financial stress. We believe in the power of having someone who holds you accountable and helps you stay on track to achieve your financial goals.

Recency bias is a common pitfall that can hinder investment success. By recognizing the bias and incorporating strategies like disciplined rebalancing and selective trend following, investors can overcome this challenge. Moreover, having a financial accountability partner can provide valuable guidance and prevent emotional decision-making. Remember, it’s essential to view investment decisions through a historical lens and remain committed to your long-term investment plan. By doing so, you can minimize the impact of recency bias and maximize your chances of achieving financial success.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

Why Did Traditional Diversification Fail in 2022?

May 11, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Traditional diversification failed in 2022, but why did it happen, and will it happen again? On this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, Hans Blake interviews Larry Swedroe, the head of economic and financial research at Buckingham Wealth Partners, who also co-authored 18 books. According to Swedroe, traditional diversification, which was within the 60/40 stock and bond allocation, failed in 2022. Both stocks and safe treasuries had double-digit losses, which is the first time this has happened, making it almost the worst year for a 60/40 portfolio. Moreover, longer-term treasuries lost over 20%, and the S&P was down by about 18%. Correlation between these two risk assets has been negative for the last 20 years. However, if you look at the last hundred years, the correlation was positive at about 0.2. Therefore, traditional diversification failed because correlations between stocks and safe bonds are time-varying.

Swedroe emphasizes that investors shouldn’t treat correlations as a permanent number, as they are time-varying. He explains that correlations do not mean that when one asset goes up, the other goes down. It means that when one has a better-than-average return, the other one has a worse-than-average return. During the last 20 years, we had a negative correlation between stocks and safe bonds, so investors thought that when stocks got crushed, bonds would tend to do better than their average. However, that didn’t happen in 2022, making investors rely solely on safe bonds and equity bonds, which could be risky.

Swedroe recommends that investors consider including other non-traditional assets that will do well in such periods. For instance, reinsurance, private floating debt, long-short equity, private real estate, and other alternatives can help dampen the risk in an investor’s portfolio. He mentioned that last year, all of the alternatives he owned were up, which helped diversify his portfolio. He advises investors to consider adding other unique sources of risk to their portfolio and not rely solely on safe bonds and equity bonds. Lastly, he says that investors must have a diversified portfolio to help mitigate these unusual time periods when correlations of traditional assets rise.

Schedule a short discovery call or meeting

We’ll be interviewing Larry on several podcasts regarding markets, passive investing, and diversification, so be sure to subscribe to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts.

Larry Swedroe Bio

Since joining Buckingham Strategic Wealth in 1996, Chief Research Officer Larry Swedroe has spent his time and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing.

Before joining Buckingham, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage and senior vice president at Citicorp.

Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.

Don’t Be Fooled By High Yield CDs: Why the Bond and Stock Market May be the Better Option

March 30, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

Reading Time: 6 minutes

With the Federal Reserve’s recent increase in the federal funds rate, many banks have followed suit by raising their interest rates. This has caused mortgage interest rates to rise, which discourages borrowing, and also increases interest paid to savers. As a result, certificates of deposit (CDs) are now offering higher yields, making them an attractive option for short-term liquidity needs. While CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment choice, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term benefits of investing in the stock market. While high yield CDs are great for short-term needs, the stock market has historically provided greater yields and potential for long-term growth.

Why The Recent Yield Increases for CDs

As the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve tries to keep the economy steady using an important rate it can influence: the federal funds rate. This is roughly the cost of borrowing cash overnight between banks. Typically, the Fed lowers its rate to help stimulate the economy and raises it to help curb inflation. Banks generally follow the direction of the Fed funds rate in setting their rates on loans and savings accounts, including newly issued CDs. So a higher Fed rate can result in higher CD rates, but it’s not guaranteed and doesn’t happen instantly.

However, it’s important for investors to consider the long-term implications of their investment decisions and to weigh the benefits and limitations of CDs against other investment options. Remember, banks are not in the business of losing money. When they offer higher yields on CDs, banks can attract the capital they need to then reinvest the proceeds into even higher potentially yielding investments such as the stock market to maintain or increase their own profitability.

Limitations of CDs

There are three primary limitations on CDs: limited returns, lack of flexibility, and inflation risk.

Limited returns: CDs typically offer limited returns compared to other investment options, such as the stock market. While the guaranteed return on a CD may seem attractive in the short-term, it may not provide enough growth to keep pace with inflation over the long-term. This means that the purchasing power of the returns on a CD may decrease over time, making it a less attractive option for those seeking long-term growth. Investors should be and have been rewarded over time for the cost of “stock market volatility.” This higher level of risk is reflected in the equity risk premium, which is the excess return that investors expect from holding equities over a risk-free asset such as government bonds.
Lack of flexibility: CDs are typically inflexible investments, with a set maturity date and interest rate. This means that if interest rates rise after the CD has been invested in, the investor is locked into the lower rate until the CD matures. Additionally, early withdrawal from a CD typically incurs penalties, which can further reduce the returns on the investment.
Inflation risk: Inflation is a key factor that can impact the returns on a CD. As the cost of goods and services rises over time, the purchasing power of a fixed return on a CD may decrease. This means that the returns on a CD may not keep pace with inflation, which can erode the value of the investment over time. Investors should consider this risk when deciding whether to invest in a CD and should consider the potential impact of inflation on their investment goals.

Although CDs provide relative safety, real returns may become negative after inflation is factored in. Take a look at the chart below that shows the real returns CDs generated in the six 12-month periods since 1984 that followed peaks in CD rates.

When comparing 12-month returns that followed the six peaks in CD rates since 1984, average returns across four Morningstar bond fund categories outpaced the CD returns in a large majority of the instances…about 83% of the time.

If you were to have invested $250,000 in CDs vs investing the same amount in bond funds during each of those six 12-month periods since 1984, here’s what would have happened. Historically, fixed income has outperformed more than 83% of the time.

In conclusion, while CDs may seem like a safe and secure investment option, they do have limitations that investors should consider. Investors who are seeking long-term growth and flexibility may be better served by investing in other options, such as the stock market.

Advantages of the Stock Market

We’ve looked at how CDs compare to the fixed income market above, so now let’s turn our attention to comparing CDs to the stock market. Here are seven advantages of the stock market compared to CDs: higher yields, potential for long-term growth, diversification opportunities, liquidity, potential for capital appreciation and income and flexibility.

Historically higher yields: The stock market has traditionally provided higher returns compared to CDs. Over the long-term, stocks have delivered average returns of around 10% per year, while CDs typically have offered returns of 2-3%. This means that investing in the stock market has the potential to provide significantly higher returns over the long-term, especially when compared to CDs. It’s important to note that stock market returns are not guaranteed and can be subject to significant volatility in the short term, while CD yields are fixed and provide a more stable return.
Potential for long-term growth: The stock market is a highly dynamic investment option that can provide long-term growth. As companies grow and expand, their stock prices can also increase, providing investors with the potential for substantial returns. Additionally, reinvesting dividends can compound returns over time, further increasing the potential for long-term growth.
Diversification opportunities: Investing in the stock market provides investors with the opportunity to diversify their portfolios across multiple companies, industries, and even countries. This diversification helps to reduce risk, as the performance of any one stock is not likely to impact the entire portfolio. By spreading investments across a range of stocks, investors can potentially reduce the impact of any one investment on their overall portfolio.
Liquidity: The stock market is a highly liquid investment option, with stocks that can be bought and sold quickly and easily. This means that investors can access their money when they need it, without having to wait for a CD to mature. Additionally, the stock market is open for trading five days a week, providing investors with the opportunity to buy and sell stocks at their convenience. Keep in mind, the stock market’s liquidity, or the ability to sell stocks quickly and easily, does not guarantee that an investor will be able to maintain the original capital invested. Volatility in the stock market can cause significant fluctuations in stock prices, which can impact an investor’s ability to sell stocks and maintain their original capital. In times of market volatility, stocks may become less liquid, as there may be fewer buyers or a decreased demand for certain stocks. This can result in a reduction in the price of the stock, which can impact an investor’s ability to sell and maintain their original capital.
Potential for capital appreciation: One of the biggest advantages of the stock market is the potential for capital appreciation. As companies grow and expand, their stock prices can increase, providing investors with the potential for substantial returns. This potential for capital appreciation is not typically available with CDs, which offer fixed returns that are based on the interest rate.
Opportunity for income: The stock market provides investors with the opportunity to earn income through dividends. Dividends are payments made by companies to their shareholders, and investing in stocks that pay dividends can provide a reliable source of income. CDs offer fixed returns that may not be enough to keep pace with inflation over time.
Flexibility: The stock market provides investors with the flexibility to invest in a range of stocks and investment vehicles. This flexibility allows investors to tailor their investments to their specific investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. CDs are typically less flexible, as they offer a fixed return that is based on the interest rate.

How Intelligent Investing Integrates Risk

Intelligent Investing believes there are typically three types of risk that every investor should know:

My ability to take on risk (assets/income/goals)
My willingness to take on risk (can I sleep at night with this much risk)
My actual risk (what kind of risk do I actually have in my overall portfolio)

Intelligent Investing is leveraging technology and years of studying investor psychology to help answer these questions. If you want to know your risk number, click the link below for a five-minute questionnaire. If you are married, we highly recommend sitting down with your spouse and taking the questionnaire together. To learn more about our risk process, click here.

How Intelligent Investing Leverages Financial Technology

One of our unique factors is to leverage technology, and we have leveraged financial technology such as artificial intelligence to help craft the above blog. We have modified the results of the blog to reflect our opinions. Leveraging this technology helps us be more efficient and serve our high-net-worth clients in other ways.

If you would like to learn more about our proprietary Intelligrations™, we’d love to have a complimentary call or coffee with you. Click here to get started.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the stock market offers a range of advantages compared to CDs, especially for investors seeking long-term growth and diversification opportunities. While the stock market does come with some inherent risk, the potential for high returns and the opportunity to diversify and access professional management services make it a compelling option for many investors.

If the “risk-free” rate offered by CDs is decent, it’s worth considering the potential benefits of investing in riskier assets such as the stock market. While CDs may provide a low-risk, low-return investment option, the potential for higher returns from riskier investments such as stocks can be significantly greater over the long term.

Credits: This blog was written in part by ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI. The content of this blog reflects the knowledge and opinions of ChatGPT. Although we have edited and modified the output to reflect our opinions, it may be protected by copyright laws. Please do not reproduce or distribute without giving proper credit to ChatGPT and OpenAI. Also, an article by John Hancock Investments: https://www.jhinvestments.com/viewpoints/investing-basics/CDs-or-bonds-Stash-cash-or-look-for-higher-potential-returns

Lessons We can Learn from SVB’s Failure

March 29, 2023 by Hans Blake, CFA, CPA

I personally am not a big fan of what is happening with banks and the recent Silicon Valley Bank headlines.

First of all, I don’t believe anyone should “manipulate” markets, especially governments. When they do….there are always unintended consequences. Let’s take a brief stroll down memory lane.

When COVID-19 hit, the government rushed in “shut down the economy.” Remember, “Only two weeks to flatten the curve”? Then two weeks became three, then four, and so on. Well, you can’t keep a country going when no one is working. So, the government decided to “stabilize” the economy and give big PPP loans to businesses and large tax credits to taxpayers.

All of this “free money” was given at a time when most of us were not able to travel and didn’t know what to do with it. Therefore, there was a building up of demand, with no supply.

This led to people staying home and play “day trader” at home by investing their excess cash into “high quality stocks” (tongue in cheek) meme stocks like Robinhood and driving up GameStop stock to hurt institutional investors.

This also led to people depositing excess cash back into the banking system…what else were they going to do with it?

As money flowed into banks during the pandemic, the bank’s deposits rose. The banks then have options on what to do with the fresh deposits? One of their options is to buy short-term Treasurys or other “safe” assets or keep the money in cash. Instead, this bank opted to buy riskier assets likely due to greed or an unprofessional lack of knowledge on how interest rates and risk management work.

But first, let’s review how bonds work…

Bond Education 101:

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice-versa), with long-maturity bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration than short-term bonds that are closer to maturity and have fewer coupon payments remaining.

So, instead of buying shorter duration bonds and money market types of investments, which would have partially insulated Silicon Valley Bank and others from the risk of rising interest rates. They instead opted to buy longer-term U.S. Treasurys and government-backed mortgage securities.

The Federal Reserve

Now, let’s turn our attention briefly to the Fed.

The Fed has two primary mandates: maximum employment and stable prices.

Because of inflation getting out of control, the Fed has stepped in and has raised interest rates, which is one major tool to lower inflation. The idea is that by raising the cost of borrowing money it deters people from investing or buying things and curbs the demand for goods and services.

So, back to SVB…they took the deposits (many of which were from COVID government handouts) and invested the deposits into risky assets that get hurt more when interest rates rise. As a result, their portfolio of risky assets has gotten hammered by all the interest rate hikes.

So, when the people come back to the bank for their deposits because times are tough and inflation continues to skyrocket, the bank has to sell their portfolio at a loss. If more and more people come to the bank looking to take back their deposits…..as a bank, you have a real problem, and could have a bank run, as we saw.

A couple of key takeaways:

The governments have been stepping back in to calm down investors. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has stepped in to provide the insurance coverage for depositors. I think this is a good thing and the whole point of having the insurance in the first place.

However, what I don’t like seeing is the governments stepping in to bail out the banks themselves who were practicing foolishly. Remember earlier, I am not a big fan of government intervention. There are always unintended consequences. In my opinion, if an investment is bad, it needs to fail, and those who invested in it should experience the volatility. perhaps then more due diligence will be done before investing.

Investing can be risky, and sometimes businesses will fail. Others will succeed. By governments bailing out the investors of these banks, it sends a wrong signal to those who are trying to do right. Now the government is calling for more regulation for regional banks…banks who may be getting punished because of some “bad apples.”

You can’t have your cake (upside return) and eat it too (no downside—the government will bail you out).

What should an intelligent investor do?

In times of uncertainty, it is essential to stay focused on your long-term investment goals. It is important to remember that volatility is often the price we must pay for long-term results. We believe that the current situation is no exception, and history has shown that markets have always recovered from unexpected events. Bank collapses, unexpected events, and market downturns have all happened before, and they will likely happen again. While these short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, it is essential to remember that investing is a long-term game, and the stock market has consistently delivered positive returns for patient investors who remained invested through the ups and downs.