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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on what an intelligent investor should do when an asset class falls out of favor.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Siegel, the director of the CFA Institute Research Foundation and a prolific investment management author. We dive into a discussion with Larry on the rise of artificial intelligence.
Larry Siegel began by highlighting the dynamic nature of AI technology. It’s a field that’s progressing at a breathtaking pace, making it challenging to keep a steady viewpoint. The implications of AI’s continuous evolution extend far beyond what we can currently anticipate.
An anecdote from Tyler Cowen’s blog, “Marginal Revolution,” left Siegel impressed. The story was written by an AI program and exuded creative writing with a flair for evoking emotions. This starkly contrasted previous AI outputs, which Siegel found unimpressive and likened to amateurish essays.
Despite the breathtaking progress in AI, Siegel remains cautious. While acknowledging AI’s ability to process vast data sets at remarkable speed, he is skeptical about whether it can truly mimic human intelligence. The debate rages on about the extent to which AI can replicate the intricacies of the human brain.
The interview delved into the question of AI’s role in financial advice. Could AI replace human advisors, particularly for intellectual tasks? Siegel’s cautious approach to AI’s evolution is timely given its potential impact on various professional fields, including finance.
At Intelligent Investing, we continuously explore the intersection of technology and human intelligence. As AI develops, it’s essential to strike a balance, recognizing the strengths of both humans and machines. The future will likely demand a collaborative approach to maximize the potential of both.
Laurence B. Siegel is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation and an author, consultant, and speaker on investment management and economics. Before retiring from full-time work in 2009 he was director of research at the Ford Foundation and, before that, head of research at Ibbotson Associates (since acquired by Morningstar). He attended the University of Chicago (BA 1975, MBA 1977). His book, Fewer, Richer, Greener, has been published by Wiley and is available, along with his other work, at https://www.larrysiegel.org.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of whether Bitcoin is truly a good inflation hedge.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, we had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Siegel, the director of the CFA Institute Research Foundation and a prolific investment management author. We dive into a discussion with Larry on the benefits of continuing to work beyond the traditional retirement age.
First and foremost, extending your career offers a significant financial advantage. Most jobs pay better than the retirement benefits that follow. By working longer, you can bolster your income, reducing the need to draw from your retirement savings. This, in turn, allows your nest egg to last longer.
For instance, if you retire at 70 instead of 62, you have eight fewer years of retirement to finance with your savings. This can translate to a more comfortable retirement lifestyle. Additionally, working longer provides you with an opportunity to save more, further strengthening your financial position.
Beyond financial considerations, working beyond the traditional retirement age offers vital mental stimulation and social interaction. Engaging in meaningful work can keep your mind sharp and active. It prevents the feeling of life becoming a waiting game, as Larry aptly puts it.
The human need for intellectual engagement and social connection remains a driving force. Continuing to work allows you to maintain a sense of purpose, contribute to society, and interact with colleagues, fostering personal growth and well-being.
Larry Siegel stresses how remaining intellectually active and engaged can be personally fulfilling. By continuing to write books, give talks, and interact with colleagues and clients, he not only sustains his mental acuity but also enjoys the sense of purpose and fulfillment that comes with it.
At Intelligent Investing, we understand that the transition into retirement can be challenging. Husbands and wives often have differing goals and concerns. Our mission is to unify families through effective financial communication, helping couples make a successful transition into retirement.
Explore our retirement resources on our website to gain valuable insights into this transformative phase of life. We are passionate about minimizing financial stress and maximizing the quality of life for our clients.
Laurence B. Siegel is the Gary P. Brinson director of research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation and an author, consultant, and speaker on investment management and economics. Before retiring from full-time work in 2009 he was director of research at the Ford Foundation and, before that, head of research at Ibbotson Associates (since acquired by Morningstar). He attended the University of Chicago (BA 1975, MBA 1977). His book, Fewer, Richer, Greener, has been published by Wiley and is available, along with his other work, at https://www.larrysiegel.org.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of whether gold is truly a good inflation hedge.
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In this episode of Intelligent Money Minute, I had the pleasure of interviewing Larry Swedroe, head of Financial and Economic Research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, on the topic of how intelligent investors should respond to volatility. As a CFA and CPA, I understand the importance of navigating market volatility and its impact on investment strategies. In this blog, I will summarize the insightful discussion with Larry, providing key takeaways on the causes of volatility and how intelligent investors can respond to market uncertainties.
I personally am not a big fan of what is happening with banks and the recent Silicon Valley Bank headlines.
First of all, I don’t believe anyone should “manipulate” markets, especially governments. When they do….there are always unintended consequences. Let’s take a brief stroll down memory lane.
When COVID-19 hit, the government rushed in “shut down the economy.” Remember, “Only two weeks to flatten the curve”? Then two weeks became three, then four, and so on. Well, you can’t keep a country going when no one is working. So, the government decided to “stabilize” the economy and give big PPP loans to businesses and large tax credits to taxpayers.
All of this “free money” was given at a time when most of us were not able to travel and didn’t know what to do with it. Therefore, there was a building up of demand, with no supply.
This led to people staying home and play “day trader” at home by investing their excess cash into “high quality stocks” (tongue in cheek) meme stocks like Robinhood and driving up GameStop stock to hurt institutional investors.
This also led to people depositing excess cash back into the banking system…what else were they going to do with it?
As money flowed into banks during the pandemic, the bank’s deposits rose. The banks then have options on what to do with the fresh deposits? One of their options is to buy short-term Treasurys or other “safe” assets or keep the money in cash. Instead, this bank opted to buy riskier assets likely due to greed or an unprofessional lack of knowledge on how interest rates and risk management work.
But first, let’s review how bonds work…
Bond Education 101:
When interest rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice-versa), with long-maturity bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration than short-term bonds that are closer to maturity and have fewer coupon payments remaining.
So, instead of buying shorter duration bonds and money market types of investments, which would have partially insulated Silicon Valley Bank and others from the risk of rising interest rates. They instead opted to buy longer-term U.S. Treasurys and government-backed mortgage securities.
The Federal Reserve
Now, let’s turn our attention briefly to the Fed.
The Fed has two primary mandates: maximum employment and stable prices.
Because of inflation getting out of control, the Fed has stepped in and has raised interest rates, which is one major tool to lower inflation. The idea is that by raising the cost of borrowing money it deters people from investing or buying things and curbs the demand for goods and services.
So, back to SVB…they took the deposits (many of which were from COVID government handouts) and invested the deposits into risky assets that get hurt more when interest rates rise. As a result, their portfolio of risky assets has gotten hammered by all the interest rate hikes.
So, when the people come back to the bank for their deposits because times are tough and inflation continues to skyrocket, the bank has to sell their portfolio at a loss. If more and more people come to the bank looking to take back their deposits…..as a bank, you have a real problem, and could have a bank run, as we saw.
The governments have been stepping back in to calm down investors. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has stepped in to provide the insurance coverage for depositors. I think this is a good thing and the whole point of having the insurance in the first place.
However, what I don’t like seeing is the governments stepping in to bail out the banks themselves who were practicing foolishly. Remember earlier, I am not a big fan of government intervention. There are always unintended consequences. In my opinion, if an investment is bad, it needs to fail, and those who invested in it should experience the volatility. perhaps then more due diligence will be done before investing.
Investing can be risky, and sometimes businesses will fail. Others will succeed. By governments bailing out the investors of these banks, it sends a wrong signal to those who are trying to do right. Now the government is calling for more regulation for regional banks…banks who may be getting punished because of some “bad apples.”
You can’t have your cake (upside return) and eat it too (no downside—the government will bail you out).
In times of uncertainty, it is essential to stay focused on your long-term investment goals. It is important to remember that volatility is often the price we must pay for long-term results. We believe that the current situation is no exception, and history has shown that markets have always recovered from unexpected events. Bank collapses, unexpected events, and market downturns have all happened before, and they will likely happen again. While these short-term fluctuations can be unsettling, it is essential to remember that investing is a long-term game, and the stock market has consistently delivered positive returns for patient investors who remained invested through the ups and downs.
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Do you have questions about SECURE 2.0 Act that passed in the final hours last year? You are not alone. I’ve been reading a lot about it and I too even have some questions for lawmakers.
As we wrapped up 2022, President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 Act into law on December 29th.[1] The new act is being called SECURE 2.0 based on the name of its thematic predecessor, the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (“SECURE Act”). This legislation makes notable changes to qualified retirement plans. These will increase the age for RMDs, make enrollment and escalation automatic for most new 401(k)s and 403(b)s, and increase tax credits for low-income retirement savers, among other changes. Here’s a summary of some notable changes that occurred.
This summary scratches the surface on what all is in the SECURE 2.0 Act. Taxpayers (and especially those approaching retirement) are all but guaranteed to continue to have an endless stream of questions with respect to this complicated area.
Ask yourself: Do I have a trusted advisor who specializes in tax planning? Does my financial advisor have the right credentials (such as being a qualified CPA?) Is my advisor a true fiduciary? (i.e., do they put your interest AHEAD of their own at ALL times?)
Why don’t you make a new year’s resolution to get your “financial junk drawer” in order this year. We would love to help. We love serving our high-net-worth clients by minimizing financial stress and maximize their lives using our proprietary Intelligrations™.
You can start by subscribing to our Intelligent Money Minute podcasts or by subscribing to our Intelligent Insights blogs. Or if you are finally ready to get some professional help, please let us know.
If you want to collaborate or outsource this to qualified fiduciary professionals, please click here to reach out for a complimentary call or coffee.
Reference: Michael Kitces’ Perspective on the Secure Act 2.0
