The Truman Show is a 1998 science fiction film featuring Jim Carrey as Truman Burbank. Truman, the unsuspecting star of The Truman Show, a reality television program broadcast live around the clock worldwide, spends his entire life in the fictional seaside town of Seahaven Island. This giant set equipped with state-of-the-art technology can simulate day/night, weather conditions, and has thousands of cameras to watch him. During his college years, Truman was supposed to fall in love with and marry co-student and actress Meryl. Instead, he fell for Sylvia, an “extra.” Sylvia warns Truman his “reality” is fake. Outside of the show, Sylvia has become part of a “Free Truman” campaign that demands the end of the show and Truman’s freedom. Sylvia helps Truman realize he is a pawn within a greedy corporation and wears a red sweater with a pin that says, “How’s it going to end?”
The question on Sylvia’s button may be the same question on your mind when it comes to the market. How is it going to end? When is it going to end?
What is a Bull Market?
First, let’s define a bull market. A bull market is a market pattern that occurs when prices keep rising up 20% from a previous drop of 20%. A bull market can refer to the securities market (like stocks and bonds), but can also refer to other markets like housing.
How Will This Bull Market End?
The U.S. economic expansion entered a record 11th year, while the bull market in equities is a few months older. You may be asking yourself the same question Sylvia’s button asked. The three Ts– Trump, Tariffs and Trade wars, can be a wet blanket on the embers of growth, but the market can still go higher. The adage, “Bull markets don’t die of old age” may be true, but attempting to time when to get in and out of markets can be futile and dangerous to reaching your long-term financial goals. Always keep in mind that the bottom of a bear market is the start of the next bull market, and also remind yourself of your personal time horizon. The truth is nobody knows how the current bull market is going to end.
When Will This Bull Market End?
There is no expiration date for bull markets. Nobody has a crystal ball to say when the bear market will begin and how long it may last, which is why we believe it is prudent to maintain a diversified approach and focus on the things you can control and not let fear or greed dictate your next move in your portfolio.
Warren Buffett famously said that like dieting, successful investing is far easier to understand than to accomplish—because it requires discipline. At Intelligent Investing, we monitor and rebalance portfolios with the goal of maintaining the amount of risk we jointly agreed to take. We have a strong philosophy and set of processes that strive to reduce the emotional component of managing wealth.
Preparing for the Next Drawdown
Remember your history. Big equity drawdowns happen time and again and tend to drag down typical investor portfolios with them. The S&P 500 drawdowns worse than 20% have happened 11 times since 1926. We will have a bear market, but studies have shown that attempting to tactically avoid the next equity selloff is likely to disappoint investors. Diversification and discipline are still investors’ best bet.
We are long-term wealth managers. We try not to get caught up in the loud noise of the markets and we encourage you to do the same. If you’d like a financial accountability partner who can help minimize financial stress to maximize your life, let us know.